Poll: Majority expect Trump to win in 2020

Poll: Majority expect Trump to win in 2020

The president’s reelection prospects appear to be a motivating factor for potential voter turnout.

With less than a year to go before the 2020 election, a majority of registered voters say they think it’s at least somewhat likely that President Donald Trump will secure a second term in the White House, a new poll has found, with more than two-fifths of voters saying the president will be top of mind when casting their vote next November.
 According to a POLITICO/Morning Consult survey released on Wednesday, 56 percent of voters expect the president to be reelected next year, including 85 percent of Republicans and 51 percent of independents. By comparison, more than a third of Democrats (35 percent) say the same.

The poll found that voter enthusiasm for the election remains high, even one year out.

More than eight in 10 voters say they are motivated to turn out and vote in 2020, with 69 percent saying they are “very motivated.” Majorities of voters across the political spectrum say they are “very motivated” to vote in the presidential election. That enthusiasm is driven by Democrats and Republicans — roughly three-quarters of voters in each party describe themselves as especially energized.

And that enthusiasm would seem to translate into voting prospects — 92 percent of respondents say they are likely to turn out and vote in the election next year, including 96 percent of Democrats and Republicans and 86 percent of independents.

“President Trump’s reelection prospects seem to be energizing voter enthusiasm across the political spectrum,” said Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult’s vice president. “Our data points show that Republicans and Democrats are equally inclined to say they are motivated and likely to vote in next year’s election.”

Indeed, about four in 10 voters say they will be thinking “a lot” about Trump while casting their ballot for president next year, including 68 percent of Republicans.

But Democrats and Republicans both have different potentially motivating sentiments about the election — voters are more likely to say they are hopeful about the presidential election (21 percent), followed by worried (18 percent.)

Democrats were most likely to say they are hopeful (26 percent) and worried (24 percent) about the election, while Republicans were most likely to say they are hopeful (19 percent) and confident (17 percent) about the election.

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll was conducted Nov. 1-3 online among a national sample of 1,983 registered voters. Results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents: Toplines: https://politi.co/32kJQWa | Crosstabs: https://politi.co/2Cmd6kB

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